My Oscars Predictions and Wishes

After the Golden Globes, I can set my expectations realistically ahead of tomorrow’s nominations, but still leave room for some optimism 

Tomorrow’s nomination announcement will give some insight as to who will bring home one of the coveted statuettes

Awards Season is upon us, with the Golden Globes inaugurating its return. The ceremony was a rollercoaster of ups and downs, with triumphant and deserved wins for some—cough cough, Demi Moore—to extremely questionable wins for Emilia Pérez. However, the Academy may not follow suit as obsequiously and routinely as usual. The response to the Golden Globes has certainly shifted the atmosphere, and with the Oscar nominations being released tomorrow, I think some bold predictions may finally be realized.

So here they are, ranging from cynical to optimistic, improbable to probable, and one so likely it may as well be cheating. 

The Academy will once again miss a perfect opportunity to break its “one woman per writing and directing categories” trend 

After last year, with the Barbie snub fiasco, the neglect of female-written and -directed projects like Past Lives (2023) in many categories it should have been nominated in, and the absence of Priscilla (2023) and Saltburn (2023) altogether, my faith in the academy is at an all-time low.

Women basically spoonfed them incredible projects for consideration, and yet the absence of such projects was felt. This year, while there is less of a clear abundance of options, it would be completely reasonable for the Academy to include both Coralie Fargeat and Halina Reijn for Best Original Screenplay and Best Director for The Substance (2024) and Babygirl (2024), respectively. While the former has received ample recognition thus far, the latter may fall victim to the Academy’s stinginess towards female writer-directors.  

It’s not that the Academy is afraid of erotica. In fact, when it’s done by men, they love it. The late, great David Lynch was nominated for Best Director for his work on Blue Velvet (1986), almost forty years ago in 1986, and of course, American Beauty (1999) took home a hefty five Academy Awards in 2000, including Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.

While I somewhat understand the exclusion of an erotic thriller like Saltburn (2023), the themes of Babygirl (2024) focus far more on the taboos of female sexuality, especially among middle-aged women. It also critiques postfeminism and the “girlboss” feminism that continues to box in powerful and put-together women. Its absurd sexuality is also used incredibly tactfully, and the writing is simultaneously hilarious, real, and shocking. While I think there’s a good chance Coralie Fargeat will be recognized for The Substance (2024), it’s a real shame the Academy has an unspoken “one absolutely bonkers and genius woman per category” rule.  

Demi Moore may actually win “Best Actress” like she deserves 

While it is unfortunate that Babygirl (2024) isn’t quite getting the recognition it deserves, I, and every other girl horror freak, are elated to see The Substance (2024) being taken seriously during awards season, however ironic that may be considering its themes. And, after her big win at the Golden Globes, Demi Moore, who gave a career-defining performance in the film, may actually take home the statuette for Best Actress.

Lately, the Oscars have leaned more towards actresses who are placed in the Musical or Comedy category at the Golden Globes. The 2023 and 2024 winners of Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Motion Picture, Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once (2023) and Emma Stone for Poor Things (2023), both went on to win Best Actress at the Oscars, and Moore’s outlandish and spectacular turn as Elizabeth Sparkle in The Substance (2024) definitely has the power to keep that pattern alive. 

As far as nominations for Best Actress go, I firmly believe the women nominated in the Musical or Comedy category at the Golden Globes will occupy the majority of the five spots. Between Moore, who after her Golden Globe win would be a shocking snub, Mikey Madison in Anora (2024), and Cynthia Erivo in Wicked (2024), it would be nice to see the Academy loosen up a little bit and not only nominate women in projects that take themselves too seriously. 

The Brutalist and Emilia Perez won’t have the same success they did at the Golden Globes 

If Oppenheimer’s (2024) run at last year’s Oscars taught us anything, it’s that there is nothing the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences loves more than a three or more-hour film about World War II, told through an individualistic male perspective.

It’s like crack to them.

And, after taking home Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama, Best Director, and Best Picture at the Golden Globes, The Brutalist (2024) seemed slotted to keep that trend alive. However, in light of recent and even revived backlash, it might fall short. Adrian Brody, who previously won Best Actor at the Oscars for The Pianist (2002), is in an especially precarious spot after his comments about Roman Polanski, director of The Pianist who was banned from the Academy in 2018 for unlawful sex with a 13-year-old girl in 1977, were resurfaced on the internet. Brody said of the rapist and director that the allegations were “not something to focus on” and that “people make mistakes in life,” giving a masterclass on downplaying sexual violence and gaslighting victims. 

Brody and the film also came under fire for the usage of AI to enhance and alter the Hungarian accents in the film. Similarly, Emilia Pérez (2024) used AI and voice blending techniques to alter the vocal range and singing voice of the film’s titular actress, Karla Sofia Gascón. But that’s not where the controversy ends – for a film depicting Mexico’s drug and crime-related violence, there was very little involvement from Mexican artists.

Directed by a white French man and starring a Spanish woman, the film serves the cultural colonialism and erasure of Mexican people, whose complex history of drug circulation is a contemporary symptom of centuries-old colonial violence, which many Mexican critics and viewers pointed this out after the film’s multiple Golden Globe wins. If the Academy does take the backlash between these two films into account, we will find ourselves in a rare but not unwelcome situation where the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Golden Globes may be losing their grip on the Academy’s decisions. 

Selena Gomez in Emilia Pérez, and Twitter’s general reaction to the film (source)

Zendaya will outdress everybody on the Red Carpet  

I really don’t have much to say about this one, other than I hope she’s there because Challengers (2024) receives lots of nominations and not just as a presenter or guest. Other than that though, this is a pretty sound take that doesn’t require much of an explanation, considering she does it every year. 

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